HIVOS.  2009. “Working with a Theory of Change in Complex Change Processes. An Introduction.”

The HIVOS Theory of Change approach is derived from work done by Keystone Accountability and Annie E. Casey Foundation. HIVOS explains that the Theory of Change helps organizations map their pathways to change, accounting for the context and various influences that shape the path travelled. Organizations map the relationships between goals, results, and strategies, accounting for the step-by-step interim process to achieving ultimate desired goals. HIVOS believes that creating a Theory of Change is best done in a participatory manner, including a diverse range of perspectives, which is useful for facilitating ownership and creating collective understanding and vision. A Theory of Change helps provide an accountability and learning system for the organization and its constituents, creating a space for dialogue, political buy-in, and mutual understanding with stakeholders.  The Theory of Change can be used as a basis for creating planning and monitoring systems and for developing relevant indicators. It can also be adapted for an evaluation of a particular program.

In order to create a Theory of Change, HIVOS outlines six steps, including: 1) Formulating the “dream” or “vision of success”; 2) Developing the pathways for outcomes; 3) Articulating assumptions; 4) Highlighting the context and the role of other actors; 5) Identifying the roles and strategies of the organization in the change process; and 6) Testing the logic and relevance of the theory and consulting with stakeholders. 

The Theory of Change is used by a number of HIVOS partners. The Twaweza program presented in graphical form below provides a useful example. The Twaweza M&E framework has established successful baseline measures, outlined the key interventions, and its outcomes at two levels: citizen agency and service delivery outcomes. In order to capture other potential consequences, Twaweza uses the Most Significant Change methodology, enhancing the ability to capture unexpected positive shifts and bringing in diverse voices and experiences into the evaluation. 

Twaweza Program Theory of Change

Strengths: 

• The Twaweza program establishes strong baseline measures in areas of program importance to effectively measure changes that occur due to the program intervention.

• The addition of social agency variables, such as the ability to voice opinions and the ability to make change, are important for beginning to reflect on the broader contextual influences that may constrain or facilitate change. These variables may also provide more information on the backgrounds of program recipients, which could be used to target and develop more specific mechanisms and strategies for service delivery.

• The use of multiple M&E tools helps strengthen our understanding of how change happens. In this case, the Most Significant Change technique provides important narratives and stories regarding change, including those that are unexpected.

• There is a significant focus on creative learning and reflection feedback loops for the purpose of program strengthening. Documentation of lessons learned and opportunities for scaling up interventions are encouraged.

• Communicating learning and lessons externally is seen as central to building broader bases of public knowledge, sharing experiences amongst a broad set of development actors, and contributing to scaling up or replication efforts. The communication dimension is most often overlooked in women’s organizations. Yet, planning for how we communicate and share our findings should be a central part of learning strategy.

Weaknesses (or not designed for):

• The Twaweza framework lacks an in-depth analysis of power and contextual influences. 

• For the Twaweza program, there is a need to create separate Theories of Change for each program intervention. As it stands, there is no clarity between distinct program goals, activities, strategies, and outcomes between the service delivery and citizen agency work. Thus, it is difficult to make any clear statements about the effectiveness of program operation and implementation and its intended results. Yet, planning for how we communicate and share our findings should be a central part of learning strategy.